層次分析法在高速公路工程承包風險管理中的應用.pdf

1、學號或申請?zhí)柮芗夃嵵荽髮W碩士學位淪文論文題目：作者姓名：學科門類：專、Ik名稱：導師姓名、職稱：層次分析法在高速公路工程承包風險管理中的應用王治強管理學工向管珥碩士劉偉副教授二oo五年五月AbstractnleinvestmentofsuperhighwayincreasessteadilyalongwiththerapideconomicgrowthinChinaCompetitionamongcontractorsfor山eproj

2、ectengineeringtendstobemoresevereAsaresult，thecontactors’riskrisesduringthewholeprocessfrombidingforandcompletingtheproject耶1eintemalandexternalfactorswhichaffecttheprojectandthecontractorschangecontinuouslyduringthewhol

3、eprocessThereforethecontractorshavetoimprovetheircapabilitiestoidentifymanageandcontroltherisksSOastoenhanceprojectmanagementButduetolackingofoperationalknowledgeandtheassessmentmethods，thefeasibleandoperationalriskmanag

4、ementapproachesarenotavailableneengineeringcontractorsendwithpassiveacceptancewimthepoliciestheinsurancecompaniesprovideorgivingupbidding，orsimplysub—contactingouttheengineeringcontracts，whichresultinlosingprofitableproj

5、ectengineeringorbearingexcessiverisksIdentificationandassessmentofriskisfundamentalforriskmanagementofsuperhighwayengineeringItistroublesomeforcontractorstoidentifythedegreeofseveralriskfactors，becauseofmulti—factorandun

6、certaintyinvolvedintheprojectengineeringHowtouseallkindsofanalyticmethodsespeciallythemethodofquantitativeanalysistoprocessandsortandanalyzelotsofinformationordata，howtocompareandsingleouttheriskelementsinthecomplexproce

7、dureofcontracting，thesetwopointsareurgentfortheriskmanagementIntheprocessofidentificationandassessmentofcontractingrisk，fewhistoricdataareavailableforregressionanalysisItisonlypossibletousetheinvestigationofspecialisttod

8、oquantitativeanalysisSoitisdifficulttogetasatisfiedresultwhenthematterconcernsmulti—indicatorsandmulti—factorsBycomparingtherecognitionandassessmentofrisk，itisarguedthatAnalyticofhierarchyprocessCanusetheknowledgeofautho

9、ritativeexperiencetoinstallthesystemofindexThiswaytheaccordofauthoritativeopinionsCanbejudgedandthequantityanalysisCanbecombinedwithqualitativeanalysisSotheshortcomingoftheauthoritativeinvestigationcanbecompensated，furth

10、ermore，thequantitativeconnectionofriskfactorsCanberesultedfromthemathematicalperceptionInaword，analytieofhierarchyprocessprovidesascientificandpracticalthinkingfortheriskassessmentofmultigoalsThispaperanalysesthewholepro

11、cessofcontractingsuperhighwayengineeringanddeterminesitslogicalconnectionAnalyticofhierarchyprocessisusedcorrectlytecognizeandassesstheriskfactorsThisprovidesapracticalandefficientmeanforcontractorstomakeabiddefinethedeg

12、reeofriskfactorsandsortallkindsofmanagement111eNo18ofsuperhighwayfromNangYangtoDengZhouisusedtoillustratetheapproachthepaperdiscussesRiskfactorswhicharepossiblyfacedarelistedThislaidthefoundationforustodealwithriskandimp